Sep 9, 2018; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) gestures to a receiver in the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
Week 1 came and PFF Greenline went 4-2-1 overall against the spread and 1-2 on over unders. Our printed picks went 1-3-1, thanks to Pittsburgh’s inability to keep a 14 – point lead halfway through the fourth quarter in Cleveland, and the lack of anything resembling a defense in the bayou. Our way-too-early look at Week 1 went 3-2, and games that affected our win totals have gone in our direction all six times so far after the hometown Bengals won last night against the Ravens.
Our models rely heavily on our PFF ELO rating system for the NFL, along with game information like where the game is played, how far a team has to travel, etc. We also fold in opponent-adjusted PFF grades into our machine learning algorithm to factor in roster changes and possible asymmetric mismatches that can occur through the course of a game.
All of our picks are against the spread, but if you check out Greenline you’ll find some opportunities on totals.
We are now 15-6-1 on our “Lock of the Week” picks since the start of 2017 (71.4%) and will be featured on the Sports Illustrated Gambling Show. The analyses here will involve…