Sep 16, 2018; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) makes a catch in the third quarter against the Carolina Panthers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
After Week 2, PFF Greenline is off to a good start, posting 53.8 percent against the spread, 63.6 on totals and 70 percent on moneylines. Our printed picks went 2-3 last week, with our three favorites (New England, Pittsburgh and New Orleans) failing to cover the number, while our two dogs (Detroit, Tennessee) came back to cover in both cases. On to Week 3 we go.
Our models rely heavily on our PFF ELO rating system for the NFL, along with game information like where the game is played, how far a team has to travel, etc. We also fold in opponent-adjusted PFF grades into our machine learning algorithm to factor in roster changes and possible asymmetric mismatches that can occur through the course of a game.
We are now 15-7-1 on our “Lock of the Week” picks since the start of 2017 (68.2 percent) and will be featured on the Sports Illustrated Gambling Show. The analyses here will involve a point-counterpoint between the two of us, using perspectives that only the PFF grades and data can provide. Follow us on Twitter at @PFF_Eric and @PFF_George, and for some podcast commentary on some of these picks, and the process that goes into them, give the PFF Forecast a…