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Week 13: Previewing key NFL matchups, fantasy football and Greenline

Fantasy Stats to Know: T.Y.
Related Articles: Key NFL Matchup/Stat: Key Stat: 853 of Winston’s 1,692 yards this season have come on passes targeted 0-20 yards downfield between the numbers.
Moore is a top-25 wide receiver play this week.
Key NFL Matchup/Stat: Key Stat: Jackson has kept the rock on 25 designed runs in his first two starts.
Meanwhile, Jackson faces a Falcons defense that has struggled against the run and allows the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
That is, until last week.
Greenline/Predictive Analysis: For the second-straight week, the Bears are short favorites on the road with Chase Daniel as their starting quarterback – in a lesson for how much mediocre starting quarterbacks are worth in the betting markets.
Sure, Davis has been up-and-down for fantasy purposes this season, but the young wideout has been a top-25 fantasy option and is one of just 19 qualifying wideouts to post over 2.0 yards per route run.
Related Articles: Key NFL Matchup/Stat: Key Stat: Gilmore has shadowed receivers in eight different games this year.
Moore’s nine end-zone targets are more than all but nine players in the league right now.

Pro Football Focus’ Preview Team has come together to provide every fan with the right information to best prepare and enjoy Week 13 in the NFL. We offer advanced stats on key NFL matchups, fantasy advice and a Greenline perspective for all the weekend’s games and Monday Night Football.

Key NFL Matchup/Stat:

Key Matchup: Myles Garrett (83.2) vs. Julie’n Davenport (48.9)

Key Stat: Myles Garrett (729) and Larry Ogunjobi (701) rank first and second, respectively, in snaps among defensive linemen this season.

Fantasy Stats to Know:

Sure, Baker Mayfield is rolling over his last two starts with seven passing touchdowns. But don’t get too cute with your start/sit decisions this week. Mayfield has to face a Texans defense that has allowed an average of one passing score per game since Week 4. At best, Mayfield is just inside this week’s top-20 fantasy quarterbacks, which means he shouldn’t be started in most leagues.

Greenline/Predictive Analysis:

The line has moved from HOU (-6) to HOU (-5.5) periodically throughout the week. A road win for the Browns would have seemed preposterous just a few short months ago but now is about a 33 percent proposition against a likely division winner.

Related Articles:

Myles Garrett’s pressure-filled Sunday — and season — keeps the Browns rolling

Key NFL Matchup/Stat:

Key Stat: Jalen Ramsey has shadowed receivers on seven different occasions this year, including the last time these two teams matched up (Odell Beckham Jr., Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, Alshon Jeffery, T.Y. Hilton, Antonio Brown, Kelvin Benjamin).

Fantasy Stats to Know:

T.Y. Hilton has been a fantasy dynamo over his last two games with 100-plus receiving in each contest. But fantasy owners will want to temper their expectations this week, as Hilton projects to see his share of Jalen Ramsey. The Jags corner has held opposing wideouts in check with a 53 percent catch rate in his coverage.

Greenline/Predictive Analysis:

Jacksonville is just a few short weeks away from being just a 3-point underdog getting significant support in the betting market in Indianapolis. They are now 4.5-point underdogs at home to the same team – which likely presents some value should you think the market is overreacting.

Related Articles:

Key NFL Matchup/Stat:

Key Stat: 853 of Winston’s 1,692 yards this season have come on passes targeted 0-20 yards downfield between the numbers.

Fantasy Stats to Know:

Over the last two weeks, rookie WR D.J. Moore is showing why he was the first wideout selected in this year’s draft. He’s racked up 15 catches on 16 targets for 248 yards and a score over that span. Better yet, Moore gets a plus matchup against the fantasy-friendly Bucs secondary. Moore is a top-25 wide receiver play this week.

Greenline/Predictive Analysis:

Carolina, on a three-game losing streak, goes on the road in what is likely a must-win game. We think they get this win roughly 67 percent of the time.

Key NFL Matchup/Stat:

Key Stat: Jackson has kept the rock on 25 designed runs in his first two starts.

Fantasy Stats to Know:

Lamar Jackson or Matt Ryan this week? Believe it or not, we prefer Jackson. Yes, Ryan enters the week as the No. 2 fantasy quarterback, but the Ravens have only allowed one 300-yard passing game on the season. Meanwhile, Jackson faces a Falcons defense that has struggled against the run and allows the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Greenline/Predictive Analysis:

This number has moved from BAL (-1.5) to ATL (-1.5) throughout the week, essentially pegging this game as a 50-50 matchup between two teams going in opposite directions heading into Week 13.

Related Articles:

Key NFL Matchup/Stat:

Key Stat: Wilkinson gave up two sacks and two hurries in his second career start against the Steelers last week.

Fantasy Stats to Know:

Who the heck is Jeff Driskel? Well, he’s a former sixth-round pick who flashed major athleticism at the 2016 combine. He also showed last week that he can put up decent numbers as a passer with 155 yards and a score in relief duty. But the real key to Driskel is his dual-threat ability. It’s that skill set that puts Driskel on the fantasy radar in 2QB leagues.

Greenline/Predictive Analysis:

There is support in the betting markets for Denver as they go for their third consecutive win, as this number has moved from DEN (-3.5) to DEN (-5).

Related Articles:

Key NFL Matchup/Stat:

Key Stat: Tremaine Edmunds’ 15 missed tackles are the most of any linebacker in the NFL.

Fantasy Stats to Know:

If you play in deep re-draft leagues or dynasty formats, then you may want to remember the name Leonte Carroo. The third-year wideout has done a whole lot of nothing in his pro career. That is, until…

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